Bayes network for business solutions

Backgrounds

Bayesian networks are a probabilistic model that has great importance on modern business analysis for its finding reasonable causes and reasonings.

Mathematical and computer algorithmic explanation is not the purpose of this. Rainy day or you sprinkle on your front yard, then your lawn will be wet and they are happy. You may wonder rainy is 9% of possibility and how much percentage the lawn will be wet to be influenced by rain itself. Because sprinkle and rain both effects to be wet on your lawn, by calculating the influence of each causes, business user can now mathematically assure what causes the results.

The statistical approach to solve this question is Bayes Network.

Bayes network and machine learning

Machine learning is chains of algorithms using statistical and mathematical logics inside. Bayes network can be useful to decide final results or to verify the process.

Bayes network example by disease analysis

On this screen below, yellow box is node which have directional information for cause and effects with multiple steps.

The chances of each node with attributes are shown as bar graph bellow.

There are 5% of chances of symptom present. Now if 100% chances of symptom, how much parents node affects for this node is shown on bellow.

The chances of Disease 1 is 49% and Disease 2 increased to 33% of influence on this specific cases.

Click on other bar to get the proper data is also available on UI. Below shows the influence of Anomaly to be present and its parent node changes.

Next Steps

On next article, will cover more topics and capability on this network model with following categories.

Decision tree by influence diagram

Enjoy!